Question

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

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Community Prediction10% (3% - 17%)

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Jgalt

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Self-replicating spacecraft

Milky Way

Aerospace engineering

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Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.0866

Comments

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Self-replicating spacecraft

Milky Way

Aerospace engineering

K2 Space will fly its extra-large satellite for the first time in 2026

TechCrunch•Dec 20, 2024

Outgoing NASA leader Bill Nelson weighs in on Elon Musk and SpaceX, defends plans for moon rocket

CBS•Dec 19, 2024

Astronomers Propose Radical New Way To Look For Signs Of Energy- Hungry Aliens

Forbes•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.0866

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Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

Make a Prediction

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

Comments

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?