Question

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters82

Community Prediction10% (3% - 15%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Jul 1, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2045

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

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Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

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Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.108

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