Question

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters83

Community Prediction

10%

(2% - 15%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Jul 1, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2045

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 2, 2020

Self-replicating spacecraft

Milky Way

Aerospace engineering

Lunar Radiotelescope Detects Our Milky Way Galaxy From Moon’s South Pole

Forbes•Mar 22, 2025

Scientist bluntly blasts Musk’s hope to go to Mars in the coming years: It’s not going to happen

Independent•Mar 20, 2025

What Elon Musk Expects to Find Out About Aliens on Mars

Newsweek•Mar 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.108

Comments

? comments