Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?

20
33
Total Forecasters164
Community Prediction2% (1% - 4%)

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50%
community: 2%
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
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Authors:
Jgalt
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Scheduled resolution:
Space
Natural Sciences
2016-2025 Leaderboard
International Astronomical Union
European Space Agency
JAXA
Roscosmos
China National Space Administration
NASA
Meteor Crater

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