Question

When will a runner break the 2-hour mark in a competitive marathon?

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction2027-08-30 (2025-11-25 - 2032-05-07)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2060-01-01
community	Nov 2025	Aug 2027	May 2032	1.0%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Nov 2025	—
median	Aug 2027	—
upper 75%	May 2032	—
Upper bound
>2060-01-01	1.0%	—

Authors:

nmzd

Opened:

May 2, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2059

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2060

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2061-01-01

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When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?

2044-08-23

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