Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?

Resolved :No69%
8
8
Total Forecasters80
Community Prediction69% (59.1% - 83%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 69%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
-38.9
Community Peer Score
23.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
Sports & Entertainment
2023 Leaderboard
Joseph Pulitzer
Louise Erdrich
Richard Powers
Colson Whitehead
Pulitzer Prize for Fiction

Comments

? comments