Question
Question
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
Total Forecasters45
Community Prediction82%
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median 82.0%mean 71.5%
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Scheduled resolution:
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%
Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?
70%
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%
Comments
? comments
Authors:
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%
Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?
70%
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%