Question

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction80% (69.3% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

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Authors:

zoehtwilliams

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

US dollar

1000 (number)

Chatbot

Exclusive: New Research Shows AI Strategically Lying

Time•Dec 19, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

The Guardian view on AI’s power, limits, and risks: it may require rethinking the technology

Guardian•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

70%

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

16.3%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

zoehtwilliams

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

US dollar

1000 (number)

Chatbot

Exclusive: New Research Shows AI Strategically Lying

Time•Dec 19, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

The Guardian view on AI’s power, limits, and risks: it may require rethinking the technology

Guardian•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

70%

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

16.3%

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Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Make a Prediction

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

Comments

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?