Question

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction

85%

(76% - 90%)

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50%

community: 85%

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Authors:

zoehtwilliams

Opened:

Apr 29, 2023

Closes:

Dec 30, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

May 1, 2023

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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•Jun 30, 2025

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Lying, cheating, stealing: How far will AI go to get its job done?

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Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

96%

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

17.8%

Authors:

zoehtwilliams

Opened:

Apr 29, 2023

Closes:

Dec 30, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

May 1, 2023

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Lying, cheating, stealing: How far will AI go to get its job done?

•Jun 30, 2025

How generative AI is affecting people’s minds

Al Jazeera•Jun 30, 2025

Lying, cheating, stealing: How far will AI go to get its job done?

•Jun 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

96%

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

17.8%