Question

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction82%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 82%

median 82.0%mean 71.5%

Authors:

zoehtwilliams

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

US dollar

1000 (number)

Chatbot

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

70%

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

zoehtwilliams

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

US dollar

1000 (number)

Chatbot

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OpenAI’s take on AI agents could come in January

TechCrunch•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

70%

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%