Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?

Resolved :No1%
16
51
Total Forecasters226
Community Prediction1% (0.5% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
81.3
Community Peer Score
19.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰
AI Safety
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2023 Leaderboard
Linguistics

Comments

? comments