📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

conditional
condition

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023?

Resolved :No
36 forecasters
if yes
if no

SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

62%
62%
Resolved :Annulled62%

SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

54%
54%
7
6

Make a Prediction

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023?

SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

50%
community: 62%
The question "In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?" resolves.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
Zaldath
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
Space
Economy & Business
Technology
2023 Leaderboard
SpaceX reusable launch system
Elon Musk
SpaceX Mars transportation infrastructure
Colonization of Mars
SpaceX

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