Question

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?

Resolved :Yes85%

17 comments17

Total Forecasters53

Community Prediction85% (75% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 85%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

3.9

Community Peer Score

2.2

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

May 2, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Amazon (company)

Anthropic

DeepMind

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.39

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

2.6×10²⁵

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

15%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

May 2, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Amazon (company)

Anthropic

DeepMind

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.39

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

2.6×10²⁵

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

15%