Question

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?

Resolved :Yes

17 comments17

Total Forecasters53

Community Prediction85%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 85%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

3.9

Community Peer Score

2.2

median 85.0%mean 83.9%

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

Amazon (company)

Anthropic

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.34

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

17.2%

Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

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How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.34

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

17.2%