Question

Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?

Resolved :Yes

6 comments6

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction89%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 89%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

7.3

Community Peer Score

0.9

median 89.0%mean 87.8%

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.34

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

17.2%

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

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How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.34

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

17.2%