79 forecasters

Will Alexei Navalny be released from prison before 2033?

1%chance

1%chance

Annulled

Annulled

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved Annulled.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

May 3, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2032

Resolved:

Feb 16, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

May 6, 2023

Alexei Navalny: Lab reports show he was poisoned, says widow

Independent•Sep 17, 2025

Alexei Navalny’s widow says lab reports show her husband was poisoned

PBS NewsHour•Sep 17, 2025

Alexey Navalny’s wife says lab tests show he was poisoned before death

Al Jazeera•Sep 17, 2025

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