Question

When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction2024-05-05

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2026-12-30

...

2023-11-30 09:08

2024-05-05 20:52

2025-01-13 17:14

4.3%

Authors:

GregorVomScheidt NMorrison

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Anthropic

Linguistics

OpenAI

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

82%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

GregorVomScheidt NMorrison

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Anthropic

Linguistics

OpenAI

AI could cause ‘social ruptures’ between people who disagree on its sentience

Guardian•Nov 18, 2024

ServiceTitan names LLMs from Microsoft, OpenAI as risk factors

TechCrunch•Nov 19, 2024

Let’s Chat: Examining Top Risks Associated With Generative Artificial Intelligence Chatbots

•Nov 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

82%