Question

Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?

Resolved :No

6 comments6

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction29%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 29%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

48.1

Community Peer Score

-0.2

median 29.0%mean 27.5%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

Virology

Public health

United States biological weapons program

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Comments

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