Question

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

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Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction21.1% (12% - 25%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 21.1%

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

May 17, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

China

Export controls on AI chips: Bidens overreach risks U.S. leadership in tech

Strategic Culture•Jan 27, 2025

How U.S. efforts to restrict China from Nvidia's fastest chips may have backfired

CNBC•Jan 28, 2025

How the US may have unintentionally helped create an AI monster in China

Business Insider•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

75%

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

May 17, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

China

Export controls on AI chips: Bidens overreach risks U.S. leadership in tech

Strategic Culture•Jan 27, 2025

How U.S. efforts to restrict China from Nvidia's fastest chips may have backfired

CNBC•Jan 28, 2025

How the US may have unintentionally helped create an AI monster in China

Business Insider•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

75%

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%