Question

Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?

Resolved :Yes51%

11 comments11

Total Forecasters57

Community Prediction51% (34% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 51%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-18.8

Community Peer Score

5.5

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

May 17, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

Machine learning

What Is DeepSeek, the New Chinese OpenAI Rival?

Time•Jan 28, 2025

What DeepSeek AI means for the future of TikTok-style bans

Business Insider•Jan 28, 2025

Why building big AIs costs billions – and how Chinese startup DeepSeek dramatically changed the calculus

The Conversation•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

10%

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

21.1%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

87.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

May 17, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

Machine learning

What Is DeepSeek, the New Chinese OpenAI Rival?

Time•Jan 28, 2025

What DeepSeek AI means for the future of TikTok-style bans

Business Insider•Jan 28, 2025

Why building big AIs costs billions – and how Chinese startup DeepSeek dramatically changed the calculus

The Conversation•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

10%

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

21.1%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

87.1%