Question

Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?

Resolved :Yes51%

11 comments11

Total Forecasters57

Community Prediction51% (34% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 51%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-18.8

Community Peer Score

5.5

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Machine learning

United States

UK consults on opt-out model for training AIs on copyrighted content

TechCrunch•Dec 18, 2024

Generative AI and Climate Change Are on a Collision Course

Wired•Dec 18, 2024

Threat of ‘mass’ AI-powered government censorship is on the rise, ominous House panel report shows

New York Post•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

10%

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

21.1%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Machine learning

United States

UK consults on opt-out model for training AIs on copyrighted content

TechCrunch•Dec 18, 2024

Generative AI and Climate Change Are on a Collision Course

Wired•Dec 18, 2024

Threat of ‘mass’ AI-powered government censorship is on the rise, ominous House panel report shows

New York Post•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

10%

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

21.1%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?

Make a Prediction

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Comments

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?