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9 comments
90 forecasters

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

1.3%chance
1.2 pp this week
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Authors:
dschwarzPeterWildefordwill_aldred
Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 18, 2023
Regulation of AI
Artificial Intelligence
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Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?

Deny some entities
4%
Deny ≤99 countries
2%
Deny ≥100 countries
0.1%
4 others
26 forecasters

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

55% chance
114

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Deny some entities
90%
Deny ≤99 countries
75%
Deny ≥100 countries
1%
4 others
17 forecasters
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