Question

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters26

Community Prediction5.67

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>25

...

4.007

5.673

7.759

0.2%

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Business of AI

Artificial Intelligence

Amazon (company)

Anthropic

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

19%

How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years?

106k

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Business of AI

Artificial Intelligence

Google says its next-gen AI agents won’t launch until 2025 at the earliest

TechCrunch•Oct 30, 2024

OpenAI will start using AMD chips and could make its own AI hardware in 2026

Verge•Oct 30, 2024

Meta’s Next Llama AI Models Are Training on a GPU Cluster ‘Bigger Than Anything’ Else

Wired•Oct 31, 2024

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Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

19%

How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years?

106k