Question

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters73

Community Prediction75%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

median 75.0%mean 64.5%

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

When A.I. Turns Rogue: How Chatbots Could Become Accomplice to Crime

Observer (NY)•Nov 13, 2024

OpenAI’s take on AI agents could come in January

TechCrunch•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI's take on AI agents could come in January

•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

23.5%

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?

15%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

When A.I. Turns Rogue: How Chatbots Could Become Accomplice to Crime

Observer (NY)•Nov 13, 2024

OpenAI’s take on AI agents could come in January

TechCrunch•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI's take on AI agents could come in January

•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

23.5%

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?

15%