Question

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters75

Community Prediction75% (50% - 80%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

May 17, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

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Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

22%

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

17.3%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

May 17, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

The Trump administration could reverse progress on AI regulation

Al Jazeera•Feb 16, 2025

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Feb 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

22%

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

17.3%