Question

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters53

Community Prediction17.2%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 17.2%

median 17.2%mean 22.2%

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

OpenAI’s take on AI agents could come in January

TechCrunch•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI reportedly plans to launch an AI agent early next year

Verge•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.34

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

OpenAI’s take on AI agents could come in January

TechCrunch•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI reportedly plans to launch an AI agent early next year

Verge•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.34