Question

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction14%

Make a Prediction

community: 14%

median 14.0%mean 16.5%

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

21%

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

94%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

21%

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

94%

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Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

Make a Prediction

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Comments

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?