Question

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction10% (6% - 20%)

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50%

community: 10%

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Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Google says customers can use its AI in ‘high-risk’ domains, so long as there’s human supervision

TechCrunch•Dec 18, 2024

UK consults on opt-out model for training AIs on copyrighted content

TechCrunch•Dec 18, 2024

Predictions for AI in 2025: Collaborative Agents, AI Skepticism, and New Risks

•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

21.1%

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Google says customers can use its AI in ‘high-risk’ domains, so long as there’s human supervision

TechCrunch•Dec 18, 2024

UK consults on opt-out model for training AIs on copyrighted content

TechCrunch•Dec 18, 2024

Predictions for AI in 2025: Collaborative Agents, AI Skepticism, and New Risks

•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

21.1%

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%