Question

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction10% (6% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

May 17, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

21.1%

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

90%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

May 17, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

America needs to pull off a colossal building plan to reach a new 'Intelligence Age'

Business Insider•Jan 21, 2025

AI companies upped their federal lobbying spend in 2024 amid regulatory uncertainty

TechCrunch•Jan 25, 2025

Texas’s Left Turn On AI Regulation

Forbes•Jan 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

21.1%

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

90%