Question

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction10% (6% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Google says customers can use its AI in ‘high-risk’ domains, so long as there’s human supervision

TechCrunch•Dec 18, 2024

UK consults on opt-out model for training AIs on copyrighted content

TechCrunch•Dec 18, 2024

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

21.1%

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Google says customers can use its AI in ‘high-risk’ domains, so long as there’s human supervision

TechCrunch•Dec 18, 2024

UK consults on opt-out model for training AIs on copyrighted content

TechCrunch•Dec 18, 2024

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

21.1%

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

Make a Prediction

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Comments

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?