68 forecasters

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

4%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

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Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

May 17, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 19, 2023

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Artificial Intelligence

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Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Deny some entities

Deny ≤99 countries

Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?