Date AIs Capable of Developing AI Software

conditional

condition

US restricts compute before 2026?

12 forecasters

if yes

if no

Date AIs Capable of Developing AI Software

2031-02-21

Date AIs Capable of Developing AI Software

2027-08-22

1 comment1

Make a Prediction

US restricts compute before 2026?	Date AIs Capable of Developing AI Software
if yes	My Prediction: -
if no	My Prediction: -

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	2027	2031	2040
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2027	—
median	2031	—
upper 75%	2040	—

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

May 18, 2023

Closes:

Jan 2, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2100

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Automated planning and scheduling

Google says U.S. is facing a power capacity crisis in AI race against China

NBC•Feb 13, 2025

DeepSeek and the Truth About Chinese Tech

Atlantic•Feb 15, 2025

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040? → US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026? → Date of Artificial General Intelligence

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

May 18, 2023

Closes:

Jan 2, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2100

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Automated planning and scheduling

Google says U.S. is facing a power capacity crisis in AI race against China

NBC•Feb 13, 2025

DeepSeek and the Truth About Chinese Tech

Atlantic•Feb 15, 2025

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch