🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

conditional
condition

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023?

Resolved :No
20 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date First Human Lands on Mars

2035-03-23
Resolved :Annulled2035-03-23

Date First Human Lands on Mars

2037-03-03
9
0

Make a Prediction

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023?

Date First Human Lands on Mars

PDF

CDF

The question "In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?" resolves.
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2100-01-01
...
...
...
...
2030-06-14 11:46
2035-03-23 21:03
2044-09-13 22:23
5.9%

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
Space
Economy & Business
Technology
2023 Leaderboard
Human mission to Mars
SpaceX Starship
Scott Alexander
Colonization of Mars

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