🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

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conditional
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Closed
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Make a Prediction

Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?

Date Putin Exits Presidency of Russia

2020-08-012021-04-212022-01-092022-09-292023-06-202024-03-092024-11-272025-08-182026-05-082027-01-262027-10-172028-07-062029-03-262029-12-142030-09-042031-05-252032-02-122032-11-022033-07-232034-04-122035-01-01
The question "Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?" resolves.
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2035-01-01
...
...
...
...
2025-09-29 16:24
2028-02-02 08:32
2030-09-19 01:47
0.6%
Learn more about scores here.

Parent Resolution Criteria

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?

Child Resolution Criteria

When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?

Forecast Timeline

Community Prediction2020-08-012023-06-202026-05-082029-03-262032-02-122035-01-01Nov 14Nov 18Nov 22Nov 26Nov 30Dec 04Dec 08Dec 12Dec 16Dec 20Dec 24Dec 28Jan 01Jan 05Jan 09
Authors:
Opened:May 18, 2023
Closed:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035

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