Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

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Make a Prediction

Legislation Limiting LLMs Introduced?

When will GPT5 be announced?

The question "Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?" resolves.
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2026-05-15
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2024-08-08 17:51
2025-11-17 14:18
>2026-05-15 00:00
35.9%
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

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