Question

Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters71

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 1%

median 1.0%mean 4.5%

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

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AI Safety

Elections

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

European Union Agency for Cybersecurity

Artificial intelligence

Federal Bureau of Investigation

Computer science

United States Department of Homeland Security

Illinois

Cyberwar: How Russian Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect a President

Brennan Center for Justice

United States

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

94%

Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Elections

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

European Union Agency for Cybersecurity

Artificial intelligence

Federal Bureau of Investigation

Computer science

United States Department of Homeland Security

Illinois

Cyberwar: How Russian Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect a President

Brennan Center for Justice

United States

Can AI and new technology fix our dysfunctional democracies?

New Scientist•Oct 2, 2024

Georgia Republicans sow doubt about Dominion voting machines in 2020 throwback

CNN•Oct 3, 2024

Cybersecurity head says there’s no chance a foreign adversary can change US election results

Associated Press•Oct 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

94%

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Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Comments

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?