Group

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

13 forecasters

Deny some entities

Deny ≤99 countries

Deny ≥100 countries

Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing

Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing

Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing

Restriction scope		My Prediction		Me
Deny some entities	89%

Deny ≤99 countries	85%

Deny ≥100 countries	10%

Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing	5%

Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing	5%

Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing	5%

Deny all, secret or no new licenses	3%