Group
Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026?
Forecast Timeline
Make a Prediction
| Restriction scope | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deny some entities | 86.7% | |||
Deny ≤99 countries | 75% | |||
Deny ≥100 countries | 33% | |||
Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing | 25% | |||
Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing | 20% | |||
Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing | 17.8% | |||
Deny all, secret or no new licenses | 14.8% | |||
Authors:
Opened:Jun 15, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2030
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 15, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2030