Question

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

Resolved :Yes

7 comments7

Total Forecasters158

Community Prediction83%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 83%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

25.5

Community Peer Score

5.1

median 83.0%mean 76.5%

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

AI in China

Effective Institutions Project

Artificial Intelligence

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OpenAI at one point considered acquiring AI chip startup Cerebras

TechCrunch•Nov 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.34

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

17.2%

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