Question

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

Resolved :Yes

7 comments7

Total Forecasters158

Community Prediction83%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 83%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

25.5

Community Peer Score

5.1

median 83.0%mean 76.5%

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

AI in China

Effective Institutions Project

Artificial Intelligence

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.34

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

98%

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

17.2%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

AI in China

Effective Institutions Project

Artificial Intelligence

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.34

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

98%

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

17.2%