Question
When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?
Resolved :May 28, 20242024-07-03Total Forecasters14
Community Prediction2024-07-03 (2024-02-29 - 2024-11-05)
Make a Prediction
CDF
My Prediction
communitylower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2026-01-01
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2024-02-29 23:47
2024-07-03 13:37
2024-11-05 15:25
1.5%
What was the final result?May 28, 2024
Community Baseline Score
1.0
Community Peer Score
13.4
Authors:
Opened:May 30, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Resolves:Dec 31, 2025
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:May 30, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Resolves:Dec 31, 2025
