Question

Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025?

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Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction1% (1% - 5%)

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50%

community: 1%

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

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AI in China

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Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

55%

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

31.8%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2026 Leaderboard

Biden launched a US chipmaking boom. The jobs boost will come under Trump.

Business Insider•Dec 9, 2024

China is probing Nvidia in a major escalation of its chip war with the US

CNN•Dec 10, 2024

China opens antitrust probe into Nvidia

TechCrunch•Dec 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

55%

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

31.8%

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Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025?

Make a Prediction

Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

Comments

Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?