Question

Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025?

Resolved :Ambiguous1%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

May 30, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2024

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Taiwanese chip giant TSMC to reveal $100B US investment plan: report

New York Post•Mar 4, 2025

TSMC pledges to spend $100B on US chip facilities

TechCrunch•Mar 4, 2025

TSMC to Spend $100 Billion in U.S. Over the Next Four Years

New York Times•Mar 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

58.5%

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

30%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

May 30, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2024

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Taiwanese chip giant TSMC to reveal $100B US investment plan: report

New York Post•Mar 4, 2025

TSMC pledges to spend $100B on US chip facilities

TechCrunch•Mar 4, 2025

TSMC to Spend $100 Billion in U.S. Over the Next Four Years

New York Times•Mar 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

58.5%

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

30%