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Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

31
208
218 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

CountryMe
Sudan
yes
Niger
67%
Haiti
60%
Democratic Republic of Congo
60%
Afghanistan
56%
Ethiopia
54%
Libya
annulled
Iraq
42%
Burkina Faso
40%
Venezuela
36.7%
Lebanon
35%
Nigeria
24%
Angola
23%
Russia
21.9%
Iran
18%
Sri Lanka
17.4%
Pakistan
15%
Zimbabwe
15%
Egypt
13%
Sierra Leone
10%
Colombia
10%
El Salvador
9%
South Africa
8%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
8%
Kenya
7.5%
North Korea
5%
Turkey
5%
Cuba
5%
Ecuador
4%
Kazakhstan
3%
United States
2.7%
Mexico
2.1%
India
2%
China
2%
Israel
2%
Phillipines
2%
Serbia
2%
Argentina
1.5%
Thailand
1.3%
Saudi Arabia
1%
Brazil
1%
France
1%
Hungary
1%
United Kingdom
1%
Greece
1%
Jamaica
1%
Romania
1%
Latvia
1%
Vietnam
1%
Morocco
1%
Indonesia
1%
Australia
0.9%
Germany
0.6%
Japan
0.4%
Canada
0.4%
Resolved Nov 20, 2023
Community Baseline Score
2.8
Community Peer Score
0.2

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