Question

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction11.5

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<-12

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>60

...

1.4%

4.966

11.49

16.76

0.6%

Authors:

will_aldred Lawrence

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Future of Life Institute

United States

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

2024-12-03

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

2024-12-15

Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)

22%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred Lawrence

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Future of Life Institute

United States

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When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

2024-12-03

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

2024-12-15

Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)

22%