Question

When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?

Resolved :May 13, 2024

11 comments11

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction2024-11-16

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2025-12-31

...

2024-07-07 20:56

2024-11-16 09:44

2025-04-15 18:59

9.1%

What was the final result?May 13, 2024

Community Baseline Score

9.4

Community Peer Score

18.6

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Business of AI

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

DeepMind

Gary Marcus

OpenAI

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

OpenAI reportedly plans to launch an AI agent early next year

Verge•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI's take on AI agents could come in January

•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

80%

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

2025-03-30

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

2025-04-27

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