Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

MetaculusM

Group

How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025?

6

7 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Output (32K context)

Input (8K context)

Input (32K context)

750 Input Tokens + 250 Output Tokens

Output (8K context)

Make a Prediction

1K Tokens	25th	median	75th
Input (8K context)	0.001 ...	0.001 ...	0.0153 ...
Input (32K context)	0.001 ...	0.001 ...	0.0249 ...
750 Input Tokens + 250 Output Tokens	0.001 ...	0.001 ...	0.0158 ...
Output (8K context)	0.001 ...	0.001 ...	0.0242 ...
Output (32K context)	0.001 ...	0.0031 ...	0.0493 ...

weight:

My Prediction

<0.001

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>0.12

...

...

...

...

...

52.2%

<0.001

<0.001

0.01533

0.1%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Machine learning

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Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Machine learning