Group

What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

4 comments4

7 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

2-qubit gate infidelity

Single-qubit relaxation time (T1) (μs)

Coherence time (T2) (seconds)

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Metric

median

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Authors:

Neniu

Opened:

Jun 20, 2023

Closes:

Mar 31, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 31, 2028

Why Google's quantum computing breakthrough is such a big deal

Business Insider•Feb 18, 2025

Microsoft unveils Majorana 1, the world’s first quantum processor powered by topological qubits

•Feb 20, 2025

Microsoft-DARPA collaboration yields possible quantum chip breakthrough

Defense One•Feb 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

21.7

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

25.5%

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?

14.7M

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Neniu

Opened:

Jun 20, 2023

Closes:

Mar 31, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 31, 2028

Why Google's quantum computing breakthrough is such a big deal

Business Insider•Feb 18, 2025

Microsoft unveils Majorana 1, the world’s first quantum processor powered by topological qubits

•Feb 20, 2025

Microsoft-DARPA collaboration yields possible quantum chip breakthrough

Defense One•Feb 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

21.7

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

25.5%

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?

14.7M