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What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

Forecast Timeline

2-qubit gate infidelity

Single-qubit relaxation time (T1) (μs)

Coherence time (T2) (seconds)

Make a Prediction

	25th	median	75th
Single-qubit relaxation time (T1) (μs)	243M ...	380M ...	508M ...
2-qubit gate infidelity	9.53e-5 ...	2.01e-4 ...	3.66e-4 ...
Coherence time (T2) (seconds)	72.3 ...	164 ...	1k ...

My Prediction

community

<57M

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1B

...

1.2%

243M

380M

508M

4.4%

Authors:

Neniu

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

First Observation of One-in-10-Billion Particle Decay Hints at Hidden Physics

Scientific American•Oct 1, 2024

Everyone wants to know what AI is worth. One investor looked to the past for the $20 trillion answer.

Business Insider•Oct 4, 2024

Senators want answers from DOD on quantum sensing efforts

Defense One•Oct 4, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

25%

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?

14.7M

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Neniu

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

First Observation of One-in-10-Billion Particle Decay Hints at Hidden Physics

Scientific American•Oct 1, 2024

Everyone wants to know what AI is worth. One investor looked to the past for the $20 trillion answer.

Business Insider•Oct 4, 2024

Senators want answers from DOD on quantum sensing efforts

Defense One•Oct 4, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

25%

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?

14.7M

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What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?

Comments

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?