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What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

6 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

2-qubit gate infidelity

Single-qubit relaxation time (T1) (μs)

Coherence time (T2) (seconds)

Make a Prediction

Metric	25th	median	75th
Single-qubit relaxation time (T1) (μs)	243M ...	380M ...	508M ...
Coherence time (T2) (seconds)	72.3 ...	164 ...	1k ...
2-qubit gate infidelity	9.53×10⁻⁵ ...	2.01×10⁻⁴ ...	3.66×10⁻⁴ ...

My Prediction

community

<57M

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1B

...

1.2%

243.4M

379.9M

508.5M

4.4%

Authors:

Neniu

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

21.9

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

25.5%

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?

14.7M

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