conditional
if yes
if no
Make a Prediction
Deepfake Attempt in Major News in 2023 | When will GPT5 be announced? |
|---|---|
| My Prediction: - | |
| My Prediction: - |
CDF
The question "In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?" resolves.
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 18 May 2024 | — |
| median | 25 Aug 2024 | — |
| upper 75% | 10 Feb 2025 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2026-05-15 | 6.3% | — |
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 22, 2023
Closed:May 14, 2026
Scheduled resolution:May 15, 2026
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 22, 2023
Closed:May 14, 2026
Scheduled resolution:May 15, 2026
