Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?

Resolved :No0.1%
7
56
Total Forecasters219
Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

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50%
community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
96.6
Community Peer Score
8.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰
Geopolitics
2023 Leaderboard
Federal Security Service
Wagner Group
Yevgeny Prigozhin
Ukraine
Russian Armed Forces
Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin
Moscow
Sergey Shoygu
Rostov-on-Don

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