Question

By 2017, will research definitively show Zika virus to be the direct cause of microencephaly in developing humans?

Resolved :Yes75%

7 comments7

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction75% (55% - 80%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

32.1

Community Peer Score

5.7

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Authors:

Zyglropteryx

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Bank of Central and South America

World Health Organization

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Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?

0.5%

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Zyglropteryx

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Bank of Central and South America

World Health Organization

Pregnant women and unborn babies face severe fatality risk in a bird flu pandemic, study finds

Guardian•Dec 19, 2024

Genetic discovery reveals ‘direct link’ to autism: ‘Key player’

New York Post•Dec 19, 2024

Congo man dies with hemorrhagic fever, indicating mystery outbreak could be more than just malaria

Associated Press•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?

0.5%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

By 2017, will research definitively show Zika virus to be the direct cause of microencephaly in developing humans?

Make a Prediction

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Comments

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?