Question

By 2017, will research definitively show Zika virus to be the direct cause of microencephaly in developing humans?

Resolved :Yes

7 comments7

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction75%

Make a Prediction

community: 75%

Did this actually happen?Yes

median 75.0%mean 69.5%

Authors:

Zyglropteryx

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

Social Sciences

Virology

Bank of Central and South America

World Health Organization

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

17%

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Zyglropteryx

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

Social Sciences

Virology

Bank of Central and South America

World Health Organization

Marburg is an especially scary virus. How scared should we be of Rwanda's outbreak?

NPR Online News•Oct 2, 2024

US Deploys Experts to Deal With Deadly Ebola-Like Outbreak

Newsweek•Oct 2, 2024

Gut microbe imbalances could predict a child’s risk for autism, ADHD and speech disorders years before symptoms appear

The Conversation•Oct 2, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

17%

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By 2017, will research definitively show Zika virus to be the direct cause of microencephaly in developing humans?

Make a Prediction

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Comments

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?