Question

By 2017, will research definitively show Zika virus to be the direct cause of microencephaly in developing humans?

Resolved :Yes

7 comments7

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction75%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

32.1

Community Peer Score

5.7

median 75.0%mean 69.5%

Authors:

Zyglropteryx

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

Social Sciences

Virology

Bank of Central and South America

World Health Organization

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

9.3%

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

1.9%

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