Human Extinction by 2100

conditional

condition

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

89 forecasters

if yes

if no

Human Extinction by 2100

11 comments11

Make a Prediction

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?	Human Extinction by 2100
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 1%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Nuclear Technology & Risks

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

Line go up.

Verge•Nov 13, 2024

AI Can Save Humanity—Or End It

Atlantic•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Next OpenAI CEO (Sam Altman) → OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Nuclear Technology & Risks

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

Line go up.

Verge•Nov 13, 2024

AI Can Save Humanity—Or End It

Atlantic•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch