Question

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

105 comments105

Total Forecasters190

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Authors:

tryingToPredictFuture

Opened:

Sep 2, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Technology

2021-2025 Leaderboard

International Criminal Court

Energy

Russo-Ukrainian War

Volodymyr Zelensky

International Atomic Energy Agency

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

NATO

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

Nuclear power in Ukraine

Russia is conserving its missiles to launch larger but less frequent strikes against Ukraine, intel says

Business Insider•Jan 27, 2025

Ukraine on the Verge of Defeat

Lew Rockwell•Jan 27, 2025

Russia’s Christmas Attack Effectively Broke Ukraine’s Power Systems

Forbes•Jan 28, 2025

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Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.3%

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

25%

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

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