Question

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

105 comments105

Total Forecasters195

Community Prediction

(0.1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Authors:

tryingToPredictFuture

Opened:

Sep 2, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 3, 2023

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Technology

2021-2025 Leaderboard

International Criminal Court

Energy

Russo-Ukrainian War

Volodymyr Zelensky

International Atomic Energy Agency

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

NATO

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

Nuclear power in Ukraine

Map Shows Ukraine's Nuclear Plants Eyed by Trump

Newsweek•Mar 21, 2025

Zelensky issues new snub to Trump as he refuses to make nuclear deal

Daily Mail•Mar 21, 2025

What is the fate of Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant after Trump talks?

Independent•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

15%

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Comments

? comments