📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

28
81
147 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

CountryMe
Syria
80%
Haiti
67%
Mali
60%
Libya
60%
Democratic Republic of Congo
50%
Venezuela
49%
Afghanistan
49%
Ethiopia
40%
Chad
39%
Thailand
35%
Iran
33%
Iraq
33%
Pakistan
33%
Nigeria
28%
Egypt
26%
Russia
25%
Uganda
25%
Belarus
22%
Ukraine
20%
Togo
19%
Bolivia
17%
Nicaragua
15%
Cote d'Ivoire
11%
North Korea
10%
Turkey
10%
Azerbaijan
10%
Armenia
10%
Angola
10%
Ecuador
10%
Peru
10%
El Salvador
10%
Guatemala
10%
Mauritania
10%
Cuba
9%
Algeria
9%
Ghana
9%
Senegal
8%
Saudi Arabia
7%
Brazil
7%
Philippines
7%
Kenya
7%
Turkmenistan
7%
South Africa
5%
Indonesia
5%
Malaysia
5%
Republic of China (Taiwan)
4%
Vietnam
4%
Mexico
3.4%
Argentina
3%
Hungary
3%
Israel
3%
South Korea
2.7%
People's Republic of China
2%
Qatar
2%
Serbia
2%
Chile
2%
Greece
1.5%
United States
1%
United Kingdom
1%
Germany
1%
France
1%
Japan
1%
Australia
1%
Spain
1%
United Arab Emirates
1%
India
1%
Romania
1%
Italy
1%
Poland
1%
Slovakia
1%
Netherlands
0.8%
Sweden
0.7%
Finland
0.7%
Authors:
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:

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