Question

Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?

Resolved :No12%

18 comments18

Total Forecasters214

Community Prediction12% (6% - 27%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

86.2

Community Peer Score

30.2

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Mar 14, 2016

Closes:

Dec 1, 2017

Resolves:

Dec 30, 2019

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Natural Sciences

2016-2020 Leaderboard

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Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

80%

Comments

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