Question

Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?

Resolved :No

18 comments18

Total Forecasters214

Community Prediction12%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

86.2

Community Peer Score

30.2

median 12.0%mean 20.1%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Natural Sciences

Nagasaki

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Natural Sciences

Nagasaki

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Ukraine Could Build its Own Nuclear Bombs in Months: Report

Breitbart•Nov 14, 2024

Ukraine Responds to Nuclear Bomb Claims

Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%